A framework for valuing pre-launch tokens
Valuing a token before it trades is one of the hardest exercises in crypto. There's no price discovery, the float is uncertain, and the most-quoted number — fully diluted valuation — is often the most misleading. Here's the framework our research team uses to keep that honest.
Start with float, not FDV
FDV assumes every token that will ever exist is already in circulation at today's price. For most pre-launch assets, the circulating float at launch is a small fraction of total supply. Anchoring on FDV alone almost always overstates value.
FDV is a ceiling, not a price. The real question is what the market will pay for the float that actually unlocks.
Map the unlock schedule
Before forming any view, build the supply curve over the first 24–48 months:
- Cliff dates — when do large investor or team allocations first unlock?
- Emission rate — how fast does circulating supply grow after launch?
- Insider float — what fraction is held by parties likely to sell into strength?
Compare against live peers
The most grounded pre-launch valuations come from comparing against assets that already trade in the same category and lifecycle. Presolt's category and lifecycle filters make finding those comparables fast.
The traps
Watch for circular reasoning ("it's cheap versus FDV"), narrative inflation, and ignoring the float that hits the market in the first year. Discipline on these three points separates durable calls from expensive lessons.
None of this is a substitute for judgment — but it gives you a consistent structure to apply it.